How much electricity your solar system actually produces depends primarily on where you live, not how efficient your panels are. A 10 kW system in Arizona generates about 75% more electricity than the same 10 kW system in Alaska. This guide gives you the exact production data for every U.S. state so you can verify installer estimates, right-size your system, and understand what to expect.
The Key Metric: Specific Yield (kWh per kW per Year)
Specific yield (also called specific production or kWh/kWp) measures how much electricity one kilowatt of solar capacity produces in a year at a given location. It's the most useful production benchmark because it lets you compare across different system sizes:
- A system producing 1,600 kWh/kW/year generates 8,000 kWh/year at 5 kW
- The same specific yield at 10 kW produces 16,000 kWh/year
Specific yield accounts for the real-world derate factor (typically 0.78–0.85 for a well-designed grid-tied system), which reduces nameplate panel output by 15–22% due to inverter losses, wiring losses, soiling, temperature, shading, and mismatch.
Performance ratio is the ratio of actual yield to ideal yield. A performance ratio of 0.80 is typical for a well-maintained, unshaded residential system.
50-State Solar Output Reference Table (2026)
The following table shows annual specific yield (kWh per kW of system capacity) for a south-facing, unshaded residential system at the state's most representative city, plus the state's median peak sun hours per day and typical derate factor range.
| State | Rep. City | Peak Sun Hours/Day | Annual kWh/kW | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Birmingham | 4.9 | 1,310–1,450 | Avoided-cost NEM; design for self-consumption |
| Alaska | Anchorage | 3.8 | 810–920 | Strong summer production; minimal winter |
| Arizona | Phoenix | 6.3 | 1,680–1,820 | Highest state; APS net billing impacts design |
| Arkansas | Little Rock | 5.0 | 1,330–1,470 | APSC retail NEM |
| California | Los Angeles | 5.8 | 1,540–1,700 | NEM 3.0 shifts value to self-consumption |
| Colorado | Denver | 5.4 | 1,450–1,620 | Altitude bonus; Xcel Solar*Rewards PBI |
| Connecticut | Hartford | 4.5 | 1,130–1,280 | High rates amplify every kWh; RSIP PBI |
| Delaware | Wilmington | 4.6 | 1,160–1,290 | DNREC rebate; SREC market |
| Florida | Tampa | 5.3 | 1,400–1,560 | Humidity affects soiling; hurricanes |
| Georgia | Atlanta | 5.1 | 1,360–1,510 | Georgia Power 10 kW threshold |
| Hawaii | Honolulu | 5.8 | 1,530–1,690 | Smart Export tariff; battery required |
| Idaho | Boise | 4.9 | 1,160–1,300 | Annual Oct true-up; right-size to 90% |
| Illinois | Chicago | 4.2 | 1,050–1,200 | Illinois Shines PBI; ComEd vs. Ameren |
| Indiana | Indianapolis | 4.3 | 1,070–1,200 | Avoided-cost NEM; design for self-consumption |
| Iowa | Des Moines | 4.5 | 1,120–1,250 | IUB retail NEM; REAP for farms |
| Kansas | Wichita | 5.3 | 1,360–1,520 | OCC retail NEM for OG&E/PSO/Evergy |
| Kentucky | Louisville | 4.5 | 1,130–1,280 | LG&E/KU retail NEM; TVA PSC fee in east |
| Louisiana | New Orleans | 5.1 | 1,340–1,490 | Entergy retail NEM; 50% property tax exemption |
| Maine | Portland | 4.5 | 1,090–1,240 | CMP high rates; Efficiency Maine rebate |
| Maryland | Baltimore | 4.6 | 1,140–1,280 | SREC market; full property/sales tax exemptions |
| Massachusetts | Boston | 4.4 | 1,090–1,230 | SMART PBI; every extra kWh earns PBI income |
| Michigan | Detroit | 4.2 | 1,030–1,170 | DTE/Consumers PBI; Energy Community zones |
| Minnesota | Minneapolis | 4.0 | 970–1,110 | Xcel Solar*Rewards PBI; full tax exemptions |
| Mississippi | Jackson | 5.0 | 1,300–1,440 | Avoided-cost NEM; design for self-consumption |
| Missouri | St. Louis | 4.8 | 1,220–1,370 | SB 564 retail NEM; right-size to 90% |
| Montana | Missoula | 4.5 | 1,080–1,230 | No sales tax; 10-yr property tax exemption |
| Nebraska | Omaha | 4.9 | 1,220–1,360 | OPPD/NPPD voluntary NEM; true-up at avoided cost |
| Nevada | Las Vegas | 6.1 | 1,640–1,800 | AB 405 statutory NEM; full property/sales exemptions |
| New Hampshire | Concord | 4.4 | 1,060–1,200 | No state sales tax; Eversource high rates |
| New Jersey | Trenton | 4.6 | 1,140–1,280 | SREC II 15-year income; best NE financial state |
| New Mexico | Albuquerque | 6.0 | 1,620–1,780 | 10% SMDTC; GRT exemption; Energy Community |
| New York | Albany | 4.4 | 1,070–1,220 | 25% state credit; NY-Sun Megawatt Block |
| North Carolina | Raleigh | 5.0 | 1,300–1,450 | HB 589 NEM review 2027; act before January |
| North Dakota | Bismarck | 4.6 | 1,070–1,200 | REAP standout; 5-yr property tax exemption |
| Ohio | Columbus | 4.2 | 1,020–1,160 | 15-yr property tax exemption; Energy Community |
| Oklahoma | Oklahoma City | 5.3 | 1,360–1,510 | OCC retail NEM for OG&E/PSO/Evergy |
| Oregon | Portland | 4.3 | 1,000–1,140 | ETO rebate; RETC credit; zero sales tax |
| Pennsylvania | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 1,100–1,240 | AEC market; Energy Community in western PA |
| Rhode Island | Providence | 4.5 | 1,100–1,240 | REF rebate; highest rates in New England |
| South Carolina | Columbia | 5.1 | 1,360–1,510 | 25% state credit (Southeast's best) |
| South Dakota | Rapid City | 5.5 | 1,310–1,470 | 3-yr property tax exemption; Black Hills/Xcel NEM |
| Tennessee | Nashville | 5.0 | 1,310–1,460 | TVA GPP $0.048/kWh; $15.64/month PSC fee |
| Texas | Houston | 5.3 | 1,380–1,540 | Utility-dependent; Austin Energy PVFIT strong |
| Utah | Salt Lake City | 5.4 | 1,430–1,600 | 25% state credit; RMP April true-up |
| Vermont | Burlington | 4.2 | 1,000–1,150 | EVT rebates; GMP high rates |
| Virginia | Richmond | 4.7 | 1,190–1,340 | VCEA statutory NEM; Energy Community in SW |
| Washington | Seattle | 3.9 | 900–1,040 | Sales tax exemption; statutory NEM |
| West Virginia | Charleston | 4.4 | 1,020–1,170 | Energy Community 40% ITC applies statewide |
| Wisconsin | Milwaukee | 4.2 | 1,020–1,170 | Focus on Energy rebate; full tax exemptions |
| Wyoming | Casper | 5.5 | 1,320–1,480 | Rocky Mountain Power Oct true-up; REAP for ranches |
Production ranges reflect 10th–90th percentile for typical south-facing residential installations without shading. Actual yield varies with roof orientation, tilt, shading, soiling, and inverter efficiency. Use PVWatts for site-specific estimates.
Why Electricity Rate Matters More Than Sun Hours for Financial ROI
A common mistake: buyers assume the sunniest states have the best solar economics. The data tells a different story:
| State | Annual kWh/kW | Electricity Rate | Annual Savings per kW | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | 1,200 | $0.25/kWh | $300 | Low sun, high rate — excellent ROI |
| Massachusetts | 1,160 | $0.23/kWh | $267 | SMART PBI adds $0.05–0.09/kWh on top |
| Hawaii | 1,610 | $0.38/kWh | $612 | Highest $ value per kWh in U.S. |
| Arizona (APS) | 1,750 | $0.13/kWh | $228 | High sun, low rate — moderate ROI |
| Nevada | 1,720 | $0.15/kWh | $258 | High sun, moderate rate |
| Indiana | 1,135 | $0.14/kWh | $95 | Avoided-cost NEM makes rate even lower |
Key insight: Connecticut buyers save $300/year per kW despite less sunshine than Arizona, because they're avoiding $0.25/kWh grid power rather than $0.13/kWh. Hawaii buyers save $612/year per kW with the same sun hours as Nevada but double the electricity rate.
For avoided-cost NEM states (Indiana, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Idaho, Wyoming), the effective rate for exported solar drops from the retail rate to $0.03–$0.06/kWh, which can cut the financial benefit by 50–70% for buyers who oversize their system. These states require self-consumption-focused system design — see the net metering policy risk guide for details.
How to Use These Numbers to Verify an Installer Quote
Step 1: Find your state's specific yield range in the table above.
Step 2: Multiply by your system size to get the expected annual production range:
- 8 kW in Georgia: 8 × 1,360 = 10,880 kWh minimum, 8 × 1,510 = 12,080 kWh maximum
- 10 kW in Massachusetts: 10 × 1,090 = 10,900 kWh minimum, 10 × 1,230 = 12,300 kWh maximum
Step 3: Compare to your installer's production estimate. A reasonable quote should fall within the range above. An estimate more than 15% above the maximum in your state is a red flag for inflated production projections — see the production estimates verification guide for the full methodology.
Step 4: Check shading. The table assumes an unshaded installation. If your roof has significant shade, reduce expected output by 10–40% depending on severity — use the Shade Loss Calculator for a personalized estimate.
How This Data Supports System-Size Decisions
| System Size | Typical Household | Typical Annual Production in Phoenix | Typical Annual Production in Boston |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 kW | 1,500–2,200 sq ft, gas heat | 8,750–9,100 kWh | 5,200–5,800 kWh |
| 6 kW | 1,800–2,500 sq ft | 10,080–10,920 kWh | 6,240–6,960 kWh |
| 8 kW | 2,000–3,000 sq ft, heat pump | 13,440–14,560 kWh | 8,320–9,280 kWh |
| 10 kW | 2,500–4,000 sq ft, 1 EV | 16,800–18,200 kWh | 10,400–11,600 kWh |
| 12 kW | 3,000–4,500 sq ft, 2 EVs | 20,160–21,840 kWh | 12,480–13,920 kWh |
The production tables in each system-size guide use the same specific yield data as this article, applied to the specific system size for major cities in that guide.
Peak Sun Hours by Region
Peak sun hours (PSH) measure the equivalent number of hours per day that the sun shines at 1,000 W/m² intensity — a standardized way to compare solar resources across locations. Note that peak sun hours are NOT the hours of daylight; a cloudy day in Seattle might deliver only 1.5 PSH even with 14 hours of daylight.
Highest peak sun hours (generally excellent solar markets, some with lower rates):
- Yuma, AZ: 7.2 PSH/day (U.S. maximum)
- Las Vegas, NV: 6.4 PSH/day
- Albuquerque, NM: 6.3 PSH/day
- Phoenix, AZ: 6.2 PSH/day
- Tucson, AZ: 6.2 PSH/day
- El Paso, TX: 6.1 PSH/day
- Honolulu, HI: 5.9 PSH/day
- Fresno, CA: 5.8 PSH/day
- Denver, CO: 5.5 PSH/day (altitude bonus)
- Casper, WY: 5.5 PSH/day (often overlooked)
- Rapid City, SD: 5.5 PSH/day (often overlooked)
Moderate peak sun hours (good solar markets with strong financial ROI when rates are high):
- Boston, MA: 4.4 PSH/day
- Hartford, CT: 4.5 PSH/day
- Providence, RI: 4.5 PSH/day
- New York City: 4.4 PSH/day
- Portland, OR: 4.3 PSH/day
Lower peak sun hours (still viable solar markets, often with incentive programs that compensate):
- Seattle, WA: 3.9 PSH/day
- Anchorage, AK: 3.8 PSH/day (winter drops to 1.0 PSH/day)
- Minneapolis, MN: 4.0 PSH/day
The German comparison remains instructive: Germany — one of the most solar-saturated countries in the world with 90+ GW installed — averages 2.5–3.5 PSH/day nationally. Seattle at 3.9 PSH/day has more solar resource than the average German rooftop.
Seasonal Production Variation
Solar output varies significantly by season, particularly in northern states. Understanding seasonal patterns helps owners monitor system performance and buyers plan battery backup capacity.
Approximate seasonal production ratios (% of annual average monthly production):
| Month | New England | Sun Belt | Pacific NW | Mountain West |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 45% | 80% | 35% | 65% |
| February | 55% | 85% | 45% | 75% |
| March | 75% | 95% | 70% | 95% |
| April | 100% | 110% | 95% | 110% |
| May | 120% | 120% | 120% | 120% |
| June | 130% | 125% | 130% | 125% |
| July | 125% | 120% | 130% | 120% |
| August | 120% | 120% | 120% | 115% |
| September | 105% | 110% | 100% | 110% |
| October | 75% | 100% | 70% | 90% |
| November | 50% | 85% | 40% | 70% |
| December | 40% | 75% | 30% | 60% |
A New England home producing 1,000 kWh in June will produce only 400 kWh in December — a 60% seasonal swing. Battery owners in New England who charge primarily from solar will find their battery less useful in winter months; they should plan for significant grid supplementation November–February.
See the solar panels in cold climates guide for the full winter production analysis including the counterintuitive cold-temperature efficiency advantage for modern panels.
How Installers Calculate Production Estimates
Professional installers use one of three tools to generate production estimates:
PVWatts (free, NREL): Uses satellite irradiance data and a standard derate factor. Accurate for typical residential installations with no significant shading. Slightly conservative by design.
Aurora Solar: Professional shade analysis using LiDAR data and satellite imagery, plus weather data. The most accurate tool for shaded sites. Produces a TSRF (Total Solar Resource Fraction) score.
Helioscope / OpenSolar: Similar to Aurora; widely used by commercial and residential installers.
A key quality check: ask your installer which tool they used and request to see the simulation output, not just the annual kWh number. A reputable installer will provide the full simulation summary including:
- Specific yield (kWh/kW/year) — compare to this article's table for your state
- Performance ratio (should be 0.76–0.86 for a well-designed system)
- Derate factor breakdown (inverter efficiency, wiring losses, soiling, shading)
- TSRF score if the site has any shading (should be >80% to justify installation)
An installer who can't or won't provide these details should raise flags — see the solar scams guide for the full red-flag checklist.
Your Next Step: Calculate Your Specific System Output
Now that you have the production baseline for your state, use these tools to calculate your personalized numbers:
- Solar Savings Calculator: Input your state and monthly bill to see annual kWh production, monthly savings, and 25-year cumulative savings
- Solar ROI Calculator: Input state, system size, and roof quality to see payback period, 25-year IRR, and net system cost
- Solar Savings Calculator: Get a complete system design (panel count, inverter, battery) for your state's sun hours with Amazon affiliate links for each component
- Shade Loss Calculator: If your roof has shading, quantify the production impact and whether microinverters pay back
For state-specific incentive programs that change the financial equation, visit your state's dedicated guide from the 50-state hub.